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How can I detect and alert on significant changes in a field value over time?

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I want to create an alert that will trigger when the count of a certian type of event changes significantly from what it has seen in the past. See my data table below. You can see right in the middle of dataset the count jumps suddenly higher and stays there for hours. I want to be alerted when this happens, in additional I need to be able to account for datasets where the normal value is not close to 0. It may be normal to see 4000 events per time bucket but I want to know when it jumps to 8000 for example. _time MESSAGE_TEXT msg_severity count 2016-02-10T08:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 7 2016-02-10T08:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 4 2016-02-10T08:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T08:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T09:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 6 2016-02-10T09:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T09:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 5 2016-02-10T09:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T09:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T09:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T09:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 3 2016-02-10T09:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 3 2016-02-10T09:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T09:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T09:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 50 <------------- start 2016-02-10T09:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 122 2016-02-10T10:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 100 2016-02-10T10:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 74 2016-02-10T10:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 93 2016-02-10T10:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 86 2016-02-10T10:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 75 2016-02-10T10:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 69 2016-02-10T10:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 67 2016-02-10T10:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 83 2016-02-10T10:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 100 2016-02-10T10:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 78 2016-02-10T10:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 89 2016-02-10T10:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 96 2016-02-10T11:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 65 2016-02-10T11:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 77 2016-02-10T11:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 74 2016-02-10T11:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 89 2016-02-10T11:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 90 2016-02-10T11:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 84 2016-02-10T11:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 63 2016-02-10T11:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 78 2016-02-10T11:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 79 2016-02-10T11:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 78 2016-02-10T11:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 56 2016-02-10T11:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 103 2016-02-10T12:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 101 2016-02-10T12:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 87 2016-02-10T12:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 90 2016-02-10T12:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 74 2016-02-10T12:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 64 2016-02-10T12:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 74 2016-02-10T12:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 84 2016-02-10T12:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 91 2016-02-10T12:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 87 2016-02-10T12:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 78 2016-02-10T12:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 61 2016-02-10T12:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 117 2016-02-10T13:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 80 2016-02-10T13:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 62 2016-02-10T13:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 40 2016-02-10T13:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 66 2016-02-10T13:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 63 2016-02-10T13:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 59 2016-02-10T13:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 79 2016-02-10T13:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 33 2016-02-10T13:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 46 2016-02-10T13:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 56 2016-02-10T13:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 70 2016-02-10T13:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 44 2016-02-10T14:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 60 2016-02-10T14:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 47 2016-02-10T14:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 63 2016-02-10T14:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 54 2016-02-10T14:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 43 2016-02-10T14:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 87 2016-02-10T14:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 48 2016-02-10T14:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 38 2016-02-10T14:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 66 2016-02-10T14:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 29 2016-02-10T14:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 72 2016-02-10T14:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 87 2016-02-10T15:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 40 2016-02-10T15:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 45 2016-02-10T15:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 61 2016-02-10T15:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 43 2016-02-10T15:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 52 2016-02-10T15:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 44 2016-02-10T15:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 53 2016-02-10T15:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 61 2016-02-10T15:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 62 <-------- end 2016-02-10T15:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 3 2016-02-10T15:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T15:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 4 2016-02-10T16:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 9 2016-02-10T16:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 1 2016-02-10T16:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T16:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 10 2016-02-10T17:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 5 2016-02-10T17:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 9 2016-02-10T17:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:35:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:40:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:45:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T17:50:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 12 2016-02-10T17:55:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T18:00:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 1 2016-02-10T18:05:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 2 2016-02-10T18:10:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 10 2016-02-10T18:15:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 7 2016-02-10T18:20:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0 2016-02-10T18:25:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 5 2016-02-10T18:30:00.000-0500 Communication with domain controller failed ERROR 0

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